Altcoin Season: Key Indicators Your Analysis Needs
2025 has been a dream year for Bitcoin holders: it has hit all-time highs at least 3 times, institutional demand for ETFs has pushed liquidity sharply higher, and the United States has taken a pro-crypto stance. No question, it has been the strongest year yet for the king of crypto.
On the other side, there are always those of us watching for Altcoin Season, mainly so we can diversify across multiple digital assets with strong return potential (and, in many cases, serious upside).
With that in mind, and given the need to understand when altcoins may start taking the lead, we put together a detailed guide covering what Altcoin Season is, why you should track it, and how much potential it can unlock.
As always, do not take any of this as financial advice. This is simply an explanation of a cyclical trend in crypto. With that out of the way, let’s get into it.
What Is Altcoin Season?
Altcoin Season is a period when Altcoins outperform Bitcoin, triggering an aggressive rotation of capital into alternative coins like Ethereum or Solana, to name just two.
You may also want to learn how to create a token (altcoin) on Solana, one of the most popular networks.
That push can make these coins rise sharply in price, driving a wave of investment into other crypto assets for days or even weeks. This is often tied to investor “FOMO” (Fear Of Missing Out), from retail enthusiasts to institutions.
Why Does It Matter When Altseason Starts?
When an Altseason kicks off, BTC performance drops significantly or stalls, while major alternative coins can move more than 100% in a matter of hours.
So, with the right preparation, you can move through Bitcoin Season and Altcoin Season with confidence, taking advantage of price rallies in each market phase.
Altcoin Season Indicators 2025
Now it’s time to look at the indicators that can help you spot an altseason early. Keep all of them in mind instead of relying on just one, mainly so you can understand the full context and where the global crypto market is right now.
The most important data points are:
- Altcoin Season Index
- BTC dominance
- Exchange volume for altcoins
From here, we’ll break down what these altseason indicators are and what they may be telling you.
Altcoin Season Index (top 50 performance)
The Altcoin Season Index tracks the performance of the top 50 altcoins, excluding stablecoins ($USDT, $USDC…) and asset-backed tokens ($WBTC, $stETH, $wSOL…). For an altseason to be considered underway, more than 75% of these coins need to outperform BTC over the last 90 days.
On the other hand, if fewer than 25% of altcoins outperform Bitcoin, that would point to a Bitcoin Season. The chart is easy to spot and looks like this:
At the time of writing, the combined performance of the top 50 altcoins is only beating BTC by 41%, which is still far from the 75% threshold. This data gives us three useful signals:
- Capital moves toward higher yields: during Altcoin Season, BTC volume drops and flows into other coins.
- Bitcoin Seasons happen more often than Altcoin Seasons: Altcoin Season also tends to arrive suddenly and usually does not last long.
- There is no direct relationship with the price of $BTC: this index specifically measures Altcoin performance.
Bitcoin is already volatile, but alternative assets are even more volatile. That is why returns can be extreme and very uneven (for example, PENGU is up 277.4%, while TRUMP sits at -38.7%). Yes, they can be attractive plays, but before investing, you should do your own independent research and only use funds you would be willing to lose in the worst-case scenario.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)
This index is very useful for spotting a potential Altcoin Season in 2025. BTC.D compares Bitcoin’s market cap against the rest of the crypto market. A drop below 60% in BTC.D can be linked to an alternative coin season. On July 21, it came close to that level, triggering alerts and pushing some Altcoins into temporary rallies (such as $SOL, which reached $205 USD, a price it had not seen since February 10, 2025).
Right now, Bitcoin dominance sits at 61.64%. For context, that level was only reached in February 2025. Like any market metric, this index moves through bullish and bearish trends.
In previous Altcoin Seasons, BTC.D saw the following drops:
- 2017: crash from 95% to 36% (-59%)
- 2021: crash from 73% to 39% (-34%)
In July 2025 alone, the drop is only 6%. Is that worrying? Given the uptrend BTC.D has been coming from on base, it is an important metric to watch. The 58% level is a key floor. If it breaks, we could be looking at a sharp drop in dominance and the start of an Altcoin Season.
Rising Altcoin Volume on Exchanges
Altcoin trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEX) is a crucial and often overlooked signal for spotting an Altcoin Season early. While Bitcoin dominance gives us a macro view of capital rotation and the Altcoin Season Index measures relative performance, altcoin volume on DEX shows real activity and demand for specific altcoins in real time.
A sustained, meaningful rise in altcoin trading volume on DEX, especially for assets that are not listed on major centralized exchanges, can signal that investors are actively hunting for new opportunities and hidden gems outside the crypto mainstream.
For this to be a strong altseason signal, we would need to see an exponential, sustained increase in volume, with multiple altcoins breaking price records. Looking at the DEX Volume chart from Defillama, we can see that there is no major volume spike pointing to the start of an Altseason.
That said, this indicator means very little on its own. DEX volume can explode on a blockchain without necessarily pointing to a real trend shift or a new market strategy.
For example, Blast saw exponential growth between May and June 2024, as shown in the chart. That happened because the network ran a Airdrop for users who locked the coin, making point farming a strong incentive to use the network. But that did not mean an Altcoin Season was starting. Not even close.
These are the key takeaways from this index:
- Retail investors collectively control a meaningful amount of capital. Volume on DEX is a simple way to read market sentiment.
- Altseasons are marked by sustained momentum across several blockchains at once. If only one DEX sees an increase, that points to a strategy shift, not a new season.
- The altcoins that benefit are the ones that show stronger utility or give buyers a clear reason to enter. Meme coins are the exception and are often driven by political events (like the $TRUMP coin).
When Will Altcoin Season Start?
Knowing when Altcoin Season starts gives you a real edge. There is no foolproof way to know exactly when it will arrive, but the indicators we covered above will give you a clearer read on current market conditions. When it happens, you will notice that:
- The Altcoin Season Index will move above the 75% threshold.
- BTC.D will enter a downtrend.
- Volume on DEXes will rise steadily or exponentially.
Once these indicators hold steady for several days, it is a clear sign that Altcoin Season has started. It can happen at any point, but historically it has tended to run from October through January of the following year.
In July, several forecasts and signals have pointed to a possible Altcoin Season, but it is still too early to call it. Either way, nobody has a crystal ball, so the smart move is to keep watching the indexes and act accordingly.
Altcoin Season Potential
An Altcoin Season can be the turning point for exponential growth across many portfolios. The dominance of $BTC is undeniable, but these cycles can deliver stronger returns for investors who prefer to diversify their crypto holdings.
Thousands of alternative projects become the focus for all kinds of investors, pulling capital into governance coins and utility-driven assets. It is the moment when innovation and speculation meet, often triggering major repricing across many assets.
At the same time, this is a phase where the market becomes far more volatile, which means the risk is much higher than usual. If you want exposure to the next Altseason, do proper research, avoid gut calls or random tips, and only participate with funds you are willing to lose.
At Smithii, we do not provide financial advice or recommendations. Instead, we give you the tools you need to create your own Altcoin. If you want to create a token on Solana without coding, we have the most complete platform roundup in the ecosystem.
Conclusion
Now that you understand altseason and how to spot the start of an altcoin season, the next step is simple: get ready for those windows, diversify your portfolio into coins with clear or genuinely innovative utility, and use the signals to act when the upside is strongest.
Remember: when you combine these three indicators, you’ll be better informed and better positioned to play your ace at the right time.
